Bahia 4-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortaleza EC make the trip to Estádio Governador Roberto Santos to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's home record at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Fortaleza EC are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 39% versus Fortaleza EC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Fortaleza EC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.05 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.951 / defence 1.468 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.924 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 0.862 / away 1.069. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Bahia games / 18 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 26% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 45%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 2.22. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 33% | Fortaleza EC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 26% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bahia 1.05 / Fortaleza EC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.951 / def 1.468 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.924 / def 1.281 | league avg home 0.862 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Fortaleza EC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Bahia vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Bahia 4 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Bahia vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Bahia vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 26% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bahia and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Fortaleza EC in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.95x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.92x) against Bahia's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
26%
3.81
29%
3.50
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.50
1.45
Fortaleza EC xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bahia and 1.45 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 3D 10L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 9W 6D 3L from 18 games, 1.83 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.50 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Fortaleza EC's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.11 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 4-1 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2025, when Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza EC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 33%, Fortaleza EC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bahia) and 56% (Fortaleza EC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 33%; Bahia have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bahia's recent matches and 67% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bahia's matches and 56% of Fortaleza EC's.
Do Bahia and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Fortaleza EC 4-2 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.05 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.95 / defence 1.47 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 26% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 45%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Fortaleza EC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.