Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 17 July 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Market Odds
Bahia are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Bahia 1.42 (66%) | Draw 4.71 (20%) | Chapecoense-sc 6.78 (14%).
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bahia. A 1.00 PPG lead over Chapecoense-sc (1.20 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bahia lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bahia 71% and Chapecoense-sc 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 59% | Chapecoense-sc 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.70 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.042 / defence 1.015 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.702 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.097. Data: 55 Bahia games / 17 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 59% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 17%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Chapecoense-sc 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.42 (fair-implied 66% vs Poisson 59%). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence. The market (2.31, fair-implied 41%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bahia 70% | Chapecoense-sc 50% from recent games — a notable divergence. Market pricing (1.96, fair-implied 48%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 59% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Bahia 1.70 / Chapecoense-sc 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.042 / def 1.015 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.702 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Bahia (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Bahia 1.42 (impl 66%) | Draw 4.71 (impl 20%) | Chapecoense-sc 6.78 (impl 14%) • Market favourite: Bahia at 1.42 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Bahia — Poisson 59% vs market implied 66% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.58 (impl 63%) / Under 2.5 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 45% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 45% vs the market's fair-implied 59% (14pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.78 (impl 56%) / No 1.96 (impl 51%) | Poisson BTTS probability 44% • BTTS: Poisson rates Yes at 44% vs the market's fair-implied 52% (8pp gap) — the model sees BTTS Yes as less likely than the market's pricing reflects.
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chapecoense-sc xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 22:30 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Bahia 2 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 59% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bahia and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 2W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
1X2 market: Bahia 1.42 (impl 66%) | Draw 4.71 (impl 20%) | Chapecoense-sc 6.78 (impl 14%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.70x) against Bahia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.21
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.48
0.78
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
32.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bahia and 0.78 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia's recent record stands at 7W 5D 5L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 10L across 17 games — 0.53 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bahia by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 1.00 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bahia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Chapecoense-sc in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 6D 10L in their last 17 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Bahia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.50 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bahia
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 75%, Chapecoense-sc 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Bahia) and 25% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bahia's games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Bahia's recent games and 25% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Chapecoense-sc 2-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.70 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.78 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 59% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 17%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 59%, Chapecoense-sc 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.