Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 36%, yet in-form Atletico Goianiense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chapecoense-sc make the trip to Estádio Antônio Accioly to face Atletico Goianiense in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Goianiense have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 2W 3D 2L at Estádio Antônio Accioly — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chapecoense-sc (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 3D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Atletico Goianiense's favour (1.30 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Atletico Goianiense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 44% versus Chapecoense-sc 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 31% | Chapecoense-sc 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.01 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.758 / defence 1.115 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.883 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 0.893 / away 1.077. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Atletico Goianiense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Atletico Goianiense games / 16 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 34% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 36%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Chapecoense-sc 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chapecoense-sc at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Goianiense (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Goianiense 29% | Chapecoense-sc 88%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 34% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.01 / Chapecoense-sc 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.758 / def 1.115 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.883 / def 1.498 | league avg home 0.893 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Chapecoense-sc xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 34% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico Goianiense's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.88x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.31
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.07
1.06
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.06 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Atletico Goianiense have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 5D 5L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc's form line: 0W 5D 11L from 16 games, 0.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atletico Goianiense are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atletico Goianiense have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Goianiense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.81 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 62%.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 5D 11L in their last 16 (0.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.29 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2021, when Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 29%, Chapecoense-sc 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Atletico Goianiense) and 57% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Atletico Goianiense's games and 86% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 57% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 17, as Atletico Goianiense and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.01 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.76 / defence 1.11 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.88 / defence 1.50, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 34% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 36%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 31%, Chapecoense-sc 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Goianiense arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.