America Mineiro 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to face America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 22 July 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
America Mineiro (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, America Mineiro have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palmeiras are 1.30 PPG clear of America Mineiro in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for America Mineiro, 1 for Palmeiras and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with America Mineiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 38% versus Palmeiras 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 27% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 0.74 xG and Palmeiras 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.826 / defence 1.049 | Palmeiras attack 1.206 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 0.950. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 America Mineiro games / 55 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 23% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 47%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 2.13. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 23% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG America Mineiro 0.74 / Palmeiras 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.826 / def 1.049 | Palmeiras attack 1.206 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.317 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Palmeiras xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Palmeiras kick off?
America Mineiro vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
America Mineiro 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is America Mineiro vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Palmeiras part of?
America Mineiro vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 23% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both America Mineiro and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Palmeiras in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.83x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.21x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
23%
4.44
31%
3.26
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.94
1.20
Palmeiras xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 17.3 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.20 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 18W 17D 20L from 55 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 14L across 55 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over America Mineiro heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — America Mineiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 13W 7D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 29W 12D 14L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Palmeiras away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.74 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.70 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2023, when Palmeiras 4-0 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 33%, Palmeiras 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (America Mineiro) and 48% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Palmeiras in 48%; America Mineiro have failed to score in 37% of games; Palmeiras in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 41% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of America Mineiro's recent games and 48% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Palmeiras tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out America Mineiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat America Mineiro 0-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 0.74 xG and Palmeiras 1.20 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 0.68, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 23% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 47%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 27%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.