America Mineiro 3-1 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Raimundo Sampaio plays host to America Mineiro versus Avai in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Avai's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai away from home this season: 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: America Mineiro 0W, Avai 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Avai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
America Mineiro — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Avai — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 26% versus Avai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (America Mineiro 32% | Avai 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.29 xG and Avai 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.771 / defence 1.038 | Avai attack 0.640 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 0.931. America Mineiro's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 America Mineiro games / 19 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 53% | Draw 29% | Avai 18%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Avai 5.56. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Avai's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, America Mineiro are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on America Mineiro if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | Avai 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 53% | Draw 29% | Avai 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 33% | xG America Mineiro 1.29 / Avai 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.771 / def 1.038 | Avai attack 0.640 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.324 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Avai xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Avai kick off?
America Mineiro vs Avai kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Avai?
America Mineiro 3 - 1 Avai.
Where is America Mineiro vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Avai part of?
America Mineiro vs Avai is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 53% chance of winning, Avai a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both America Mineiro and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 0 | Avai 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Avai in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Avai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
America Mineiro's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Avai's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.64x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.42
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.91
0.62
Avai xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.62 for Avai, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Avai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
America Mineiro come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 3D 10L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Avai sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.11 for Avai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
America Mineiro's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — America Mineiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Avai have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 1.05 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: America Mineiro have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Avai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Avai in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Avai have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Avai away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.56 PPG; Avai away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
0
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Avai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2022, when America Mineiro 3-1 Avai.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (America Mineiro) and 33% (Avai) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (America Mineiro) and 56% (Avai).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 44% of games; Avai in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 33% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of America Mineiro's recent games and 56% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Avai tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Avai in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Avai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Avai 3-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.29 xG and Avai 0.62 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. America Mineiro beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Avai attack 0.64 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 53% | Draw 29% | Avai 18%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 32%, Avai 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did.
Avai's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.11 PPG, Avai 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Avai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.