Zulte Waregem 1-2 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Standard Liege travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 1.00 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.97 xG and Standard Liege 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Standard Liege attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.399. Data: 1 Zulte Waregem games / 1 Standard Liege games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 23% | Draw 35% | Standard Liege 42%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Standard Liege 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 23% | Draw 35% | Standard Liege 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.97 / Standard Liege 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Standard Liege attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Standard Liege xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 2 Standard Liege.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 23% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Standard Liege (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.97) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
23%
4.40
35%
2.85
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.34
1.37
Standard Liege xG
4.40
23%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.37 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.00 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Standard Liege in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Zulte Waregem's games and 100% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 0% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Zulte Waregem 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Zulte Waregem 1-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.97 xG and Standard Liege 1.37 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Standard Liege attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 23% | Draw 35% | Standard Liege 42%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 0%, Standard Liege 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.00 PPG, Standard Liege 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.