Zulte Waregem 0-0 Oostende – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oostende at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Oostende fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Oostende meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Oostende have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Oostende have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Zulte Waregem, 0 for Oostende and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Oostende — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 72% and Oostende 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 68% | Oostende 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG and Oostende 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.008 / defence 1.353 | Oostende attack 0.646 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.487. Data: 25 Zulte Waregem games / 25 Oostende games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 27% | Oostende 39%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Oostende 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oostende are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oostende if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 80% | Oostende 20%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Oostende | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 27% | Oostende 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.19 / Oostende 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.008 / def 1.353 | Oostende attack 0.646 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Oostende (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Oostende xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Oostende kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Oostende kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Oostende?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 0 Oostende.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Oostende being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Oostende part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Oostende is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Oostende?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 34% chance of winning, Oostende a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oostende the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Oostende?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Oostende will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Oostende have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Oostende?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | Oostende 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Oostende in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Oostende (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Oostende's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Oostende's attack (0.65x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oostende Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.65
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.49
1.30
Oostende xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Oostende?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Oostende expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.30 for Oostende, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Oostende?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 6W 7D 12L from 25 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oostende, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 14L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.08 for Oostende. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oostende's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Oostende are on 1.08 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Oostende
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Oostende in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Oostende have gone 8W 3D 14L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Oostende away?
Oostende's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.00 PPG; Oostende away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oostende have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oostende — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Oostende
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Oostende?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Oostende have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Oostende last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Oostende 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Oostende?
Oostende have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Oostende see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 75%, Oostende 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Zulte Waregem) and 33% (Oostende).
On the defensive side: Oostende in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Oostende away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Oostende?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 33% of Oostende's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Oostende usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 33% of Oostende's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Oostende tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oostende in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zulte Waregem's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Zulte Waregem and Oostende drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG and Oostende 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Oostende landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Oostende attack 0.65 / defence 1.06, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 27% | Oostende 39%, with Oostende to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 68%, Oostende 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Oostende's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.00 PPG, Oostende 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.