Zulte Waregem 1-1 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KVC Westerlo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Zulte Waregem welcome KVC Westerlo to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KVC Westerlo stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zulte Waregem 1.40 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 1 for KVC Westerlo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with KVC Westerlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
KVC Westerlo trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 57% versus KVC Westerlo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 61% | KVC Westerlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.88 xG and KVC Westerlo 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.122 / defence 1.475 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.010 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.364. Data: 55 Zulte Waregem games / 21 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 21% | KVC Westerlo 42%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.78 | Draw 4.76 | KVC Westerlo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KVC Westerlo at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.91 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | KVC Westerlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 21% | KVC Westerlo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.88 / KVC Westerlo 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.122 / def 1.475 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.010 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.03
KVC Westerlo xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 1 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 36% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 0 | KVC Westerlo 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.12x the league average against KVC Westerlo's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
36%
2.76
21%
4.70
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.91
2.03
KVC Westerlo xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
5%
21.06
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.03 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 11W 10D 28L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo's form line: 26W 8D 15L from 49 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KVC Westerlo are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (8W 4D 12L).
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 13W 1D 10L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KVC Westerlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.90 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 11W 10D 28L in their last 49 games (0.88 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 26W 8D 15L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or KVC Westerlo away?
KVC Westerlo's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.17 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or KVC Westerlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, KVC Westerlo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: KVC Westerlo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 0, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo?
KVC Westerlo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 58%, KVC Westerlo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zulte Waregem and 54% for KVC Westerlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play KVC Westerlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zulte Waregem's games and 54% of KVC Westerlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 54% of KVC Westerlo's.
Do Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Zulte Waregem and KVC Westerlo drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.88 xG and KVC Westerlo 2.03 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 0.9 short of their projected output. KVC Westerlo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.12 / defence 1.48 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 21% | KVC Westerlo 42%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, KVC Westerlo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KVC Westerlo arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.