Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stade Joseph Marien — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OH Leuven — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union St. Gilloise: 7 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for OH Leuven, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
OH Leuven trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus OH Leuven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 45% | OH Leuven 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.29 xG and OH Leuven 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.322 / defence 0.657 | OH Leuven attack 0.766 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.290. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.657 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Union St. Gilloise games / 37 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 75% | Draw 17% | OH Leuven 9%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | OH Leuven 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | OH Leuven 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 75% | Draw 17% | OH Leuven 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 43% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.29 / OH Leuven 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.322 / def 0.657 | OH Leuven attack 0.766 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.65
OH Leuven xG
43%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 75% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Record (9 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 7W | Draws 2 | OH Leuven 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.32x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
75%
1.34
17%
6.02
9%
11.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.94
0.65
OH Leuven xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
11.26
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
1%
111.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.65 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 31W 12D 4L from 47 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 25L across 47 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 20W 3D 0L from 23 games — 2.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.23 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 0.98 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 12D 4L in their last 47 games (2.23 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or OH Leuven away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.74 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
0
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, OH Leuven have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 30%, OH Leuven 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union St. Gilloise) and 48% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; OH Leuven in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 48% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 48% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 8, as Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.29 xG and OH Leuven 0.65 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.32 / defence 0.66 against OH Leuven attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 75% | Draw 17% | OH Leuven 9%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 45%, OH Leuven 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.