Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Joseph Mariën plays host to Union St. Gilloise versus Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 2 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.50 for Beerschot VA. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 2W, Beerschot VA 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 5–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 71% and Beerschot VA 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 64% | Beerschot VA 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.61 xG and Beerschot VA 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.115 / defence 1.039 | Beerschot VA attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 0.885. Data: 31 Union St. Gilloise games / 1 Beerschot VA games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 80% | Beerschot VA 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.61 / Beerschot VA 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.115 / def 1.039 | Beerschot VA attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.257 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Beerschot VA xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 August 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 57% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA?
Record (2 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.11) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.85x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.92
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.39
0.78
Beerschot VA xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
4%
28.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.78 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 9D 4L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (17W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.84 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 2.07 points per game from 15 outings (10W 1D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.48 scored and 0.94 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's scoring rate against Beerschot VA's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 18W 9D 4L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 8L in their last 31 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Beerschot VA away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.20 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Beerschot VA 0-4 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Union St. Gilloise, 60% for Beerschot VA — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Union St. Gilloise and 60% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 60% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 60% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Beerschot VA 3-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.61 xG and Beerschot VA 0.78 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Beerschot VA attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 64%, Beerschot VA 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.03 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.