Standard Liege 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liege versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 3 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liege have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Standard Liege's home record at Stade Maurice Dufrasne: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Standard Liege 0W, Union St. Gilloise 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liege — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus Union St. Gilloise 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 41% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.59 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.623 / defence 1.128 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.473 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.334. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Standard Liege games / 32 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 8% | Draw 17% | Union St. Gilloise 75%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 12.50 | Draw 5.88 | Union St. Gilloise 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 40% | Union St. Gilloise 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 8% | Draw 17% | Union St. Gilloise 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 40% | xG Standard Liege 0.59 / Union St. Gilloise 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.623 / def 1.128 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.473 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Union St. Gilloise xG
40%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Standard Liege 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 8% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 75% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Standard Liege 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.62) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.47x) against Standard Liege's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-3 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
8%
11.95
17%
5.91
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 3
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.81
2.22
Union St. Gilloise xG
11.95
8%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
11%
9.19
55%
1.80
Win to Nil
1%
109.78
41%
2.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Standard Liege and 2.22 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 9W 9D 14L from 32 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 5L across 32 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 3W 5D 8L from 16 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 13W 2D 1L across 16 trips, a 2.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liege are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.19 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 22W 5D 5L in their last 32 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 0.88 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Standard Liege
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 50%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Standard Liege) and 69% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 50%; Standard Liege have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Standard Liege's recent games and 69% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Standard Liege 1-3 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.59 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.22 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.62 / defence 1.13 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.47 / defence 0.83, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 8% | Draw 17% | Union St. Gilloise 75%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 41%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.