Standard Liege 1-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liege versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liege's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games (1.62 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.62 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season.
St. Truiden have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 1.25 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.62 for Standard Liege, 1.25 for St. Truiden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Standard Liege half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 38% versus St. Truiden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 38% | St. Truiden 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.87 xG and St. Truiden 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.779 / defence 1.190 | St. Truiden attack 0.659 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.505. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Standard Liege games / 8 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 27% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 43%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | St. Truiden 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 27% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Standard Liege 0.87 / St. Truiden 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.779 / def 1.190 | St. Truiden attack 0.659 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.18
St. Truiden xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs St. Truiden kick off?
Standard Liege vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Standard Liege 1 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden part of?
Standard Liege vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 27% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Standard Liege and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and St. Truiden in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.78x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.66x) against Standard Liege's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.35
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.05
1.18
St. Truiden xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.1 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.18 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Standard Liege against 1.25 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — St. Truiden travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liege are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; St. Truiden in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Standard Liege 1-2 St. Truiden.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 50%, St. Truiden 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Standard Liege and 25% for St. Truiden.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 25% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Standard Liege's recent games and 25% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Standard Liege 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Standard Liege 1-2 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.87 xG and St. Truiden 1.18 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against St. Truiden attack 0.66 / defence 0.95, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 27% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 43%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 38%, St. Truiden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.62 PPG, St. Truiden 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.