Standard Liege 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Kortrijk travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liege have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.10 PPG, Kortrijk 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kortrijk trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 58% versus Kortrijk 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 50% | Kortrijk 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.18 xG and Kortrijk 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.812 / defence 1.335 | Kortrijk attack 0.691 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.484. Data: 12 Standard Liege games / 12 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 32% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 41%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Kortrijk 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 67% | Kortrijk 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 32% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Standard Liege 1.18 / Kortrijk 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.812 / def 1.335 | Kortrijk attack 0.691 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Kortrijk xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Standard Liege 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk part of?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 32% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Standard Liege and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.81) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.77
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.55
1.37
Kortrijk xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.37 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.25 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 0.83 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 67%, Kortrijk 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Standard Liege) and 33% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 33%; Kortrijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 33% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Standard Liege's recent games and 33% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 13, as Standard Liege and Kortrijk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.18 xG and Kortrijk 1.37 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.81 / defence 1.33 against Kortrijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 32% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 41%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 50%, Kortrijk 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.25 PPG, Kortrijk 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.