Standard Liege 1-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Standard Liege take on Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Standard Liege host Genk at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Standard Liege have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Standard Liege are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Genk have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Genk have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genk — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Standard Liege, 1 for Genk and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended Standard Liege 0–0 Genk — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 48% versus Genk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 43% | Genk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Genk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.736 / defence 0.743 | Genk attack 1.209 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.091. Standard Liege's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Genk have an above-average attack rating of 1.209, which lifts their away xG to 0.98. Standard Liege have a tight defence (rating 0.743), which is pulling Genk's projected output down. Data: built from Standard Liege's last 55 games and Genk's last 55.
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 36% | Genk 28%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.82 | Draw 2.75 | Genk 3.54. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Standard Liege 40% (last 10 home games) | Genk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 36% | Genk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Standard Liege 1.12 / Genk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.736 / def 0.743 | Genk attack 1.209 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Genk xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk FAQs
What time does Standard Liege vs Genk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 14 February 2025 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Genk?
Standard Liege 1 - 2 Genk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Genk part of?
Standard Liege vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 35% chance of winning, Genk a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Standard Liege and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Standard Liege vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.74x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Standard Liege's last 55 games and Genk's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.82
36%
2.75
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.10
0.98
Genk xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.98 for Genk, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 17W 23D 25L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 33W 15D 17L from 65 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 31 home games (13W 11D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Standard Liege are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Genk have gone 12W 7D 12L from their last 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.60 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Genk
Blended
Standard Liege (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liege
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liege and Genk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 17W 23D 25L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Genk have gone 33W 15D 17L in their last 65 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Genk away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.61 PPG; Genk away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Genk in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won Genk 0-3 Standard Liege.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Genk specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Standard Liege
3
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liege have won 4, Genk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Genk 2-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Genk?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 39%, Genk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Standard Liege) and 55% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liege and Genk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 61% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Standard Liege and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Standard Liege's recent games and 55% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 68% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Standard Liege 1-2 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Genk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genk outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.74 / defence 0.74 against Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 36% | Genk 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 43%, Genk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.