Standard Liege 3-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Charleroi travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.80 PPG, Charleroi 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 49% versus Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 46% | Charleroi 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.29 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.021 / defence 0.862 | Charleroi attack 1.046 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.290. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Standard Liege games / 65 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 39% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Charleroi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 40% | Charleroi 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 39% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Standard Liege 1.29 / Charleroi 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.021 / def 0.862 | Charleroi attack 1.046 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Charleroi xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 3 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 39% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.45
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.46
1.16
Charleroi xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.16 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 16D 26L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 29W 11D 25L from 65 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.31 PPG, Charleroi on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 14W 6D 12L from 32 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.46 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 23W 16D 26L in their last 65 games (1.31 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 29W 11D 25L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.28 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 47%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Standard Liege) and 69% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Standard Liege's matches and 69% of Charleroi's.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Charleroi 3-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.29 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 39% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 32%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 46%, Charleroi 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.31 PPG, Charleroi 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.