Standard Liege 0-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Charleroi travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 2W 3D 3L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 road games this term (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Standard Liege register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Charleroi in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 62% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 50% | Charleroi 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.33 xG and Charleroi 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.814 / defence 1.121 | Charleroi attack 0.994 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.490. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Standard Liege games / 16 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 31% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 45%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 2.22. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 62% | Charleroi 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 31% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Standard Liege 1.33 / Charleroi 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.814 / def 1.121 | Charleroi attack 0.994 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Charleroi xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 0 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 31% chance of winning, Charleroi a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
31%
3.26
24%
4.17
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.99
1.66
Charleroi xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
6%
17.14
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.66 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 5W 5D 6L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 7W 5D 4L from 16 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.25 PPG, Charleroi on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liege have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.12 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Standard Liege at 62%, Charleroi at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Standard Liege and 88% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Standard Liege's games and 75% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Standard Liege's matches and 88% of Charleroi's.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 0-3 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.33 xG and Charleroi 1.66 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.32, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 31% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 45%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 50%, Charleroi 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.25 PPG, Charleroi 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.