St. Truiden 1-0 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 46%, yet in-form KVC Westerlo provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Current Form
St. Truiden's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, St. Truiden have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
KVC Westerlo have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
KVC Westerlo arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from St. Truiden's last 10 home games and KVC Westerlo's last 10 away games) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, KVC Westerlo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for St. Truiden, 1 for KVC Westerlo and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended St. Truiden 3–3 KVC Westerlo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
KVC Westerlo — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 50% versus KVC Westerlo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | KVC Westerlo 67%). Note also that KVC Westerlo surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while St. Truiden recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.62 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.959 / defence 0.863 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.158 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.229. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 60 games and KVC Westerlo's last 60.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 25% | KVC Westerlo 29%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.16 | Draw 3.97 | KVC Westerlo 3.50. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KVC Westerlo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and KVC Westerlo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 60% (last 10 home games) | KVC Westerlo 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 25% | KVC Westerlo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG St. Truiden 1.62 / KVC Westerlo 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.959 / def 0.863 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.158 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.23
KVC Westerlo xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 KVC Westerlo.
Where is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo part of?
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 46% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against KVC Westerlo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — KVC Westerlo's attack (1.16x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 60 games and KVC Westerlo's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.97
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.85
1.23
KVC Westerlo xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.23 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 19D 22L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, KVC Westerlo sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (20W 18D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.30 for KVC Westerlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, KVC Westerlo have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 13D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.67 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs KVC Westerlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 19W 19D 22L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or KVC Westerlo away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.47 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo, the earliest from February 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won KVC Westerlo 0-4 St. Truiden on 6 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 3W 0D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KVC Westerlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
2
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 5, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: St. Truiden 0-2 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 43%, KVC Westerlo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (St. Truiden) and 53% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 63% of KVC Westerlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of St. Truiden's recent games and 53% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 77% of KVC Westerlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out KVC Westerlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KVC Westerlo 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.62 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KVC Westerlo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 25% | KVC Westerlo 29%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, KVC Westerlo 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.27 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.