St. Truiden 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St. Truiden face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kortrijk travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St. Truiden have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kortrijk — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kortrijk away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.30 PPG, Kortrijk 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, St. Truiden have won 3, Kortrijk 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended St. Truiden 1–0 Kortrijk — a St. Truiden win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 50% versus Kortrijk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Kortrijk 55%). Note also that Kortrijk surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while St. Truiden recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.93 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / defence 0.934 | Kortrijk attack 0.855 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.218. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 58 games and Kortrijk's last 58.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.69 | Draw 4.37 | Kortrijk 5.58. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 60% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG St. Truiden 1.93 / Kortrijk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / def 0.934 | Kortrijk attack 0.855 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kortrijk xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 9 February 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 59% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.97) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 58 games and Kortrijk's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.37
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.90
0.97
Kortrijk xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
38.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.97 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 18W 19D 21L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 33L across 58 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 8D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 5D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.93 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 19D 21L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 33L in their last 58 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Kortrijk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.41 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won St. Truiden 0-3 Kortrijk.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 45%, Kortrijk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 62% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 34% of games; Kortrijk in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 52% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 62% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 83% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.93 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kortrijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Kortrijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.