Seraing United 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seraing United vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charleroi make the trip to Stade du Pairay to face Seraing United in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Seraing United have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Seraing United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Seraing United at Stade du Pairay this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Seraing United against 1.30 for Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Seraing United lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Seraing United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 36% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 51% | Charleroi 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 0.698 / defence 1.095 | Charleroi attack 0.940 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.139. Seraing United's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Seraing United games / 37 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seraing United 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 36%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Seraing United 20% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Seraing United 1.15 / Charleroi 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 0.698 / def 1.095 | Charleroi attack 0.940 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Charleroi xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs Charleroi kick off?
Seraing United vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Seraing United 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Seraing United vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs Charleroi part of?
Seraing United vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 35% chance of winning, Charleroi a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Seraing United and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Seraing United 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Seraing United and Charleroi in?
Seraing United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Seraing United's attack rating (0.70) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.94x) against Seraing United's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.54
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Seraing United xG
Total xG
2.32
1.17
Charleroi xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Seraing United and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Seraing United and 1.17 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Seraing United have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 9W 5D 25L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Seraing United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 17W 7D 15L from 39 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seraing United.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Seraing United have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Seraing United are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.64 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 9W 5D 25L in their last 39 games (0.82 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 7D 15L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 1.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charleroi have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seraing United have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Seraing United
0
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Charleroi?
From 4 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 0, Charleroi have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Charleroi 3-0 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seraing United 32%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for Seraing United and 79% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Seraing United have failed to score in 58% of games; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Seraing United's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seraing United vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Seraing United's matches and 79% of Charleroi's.
Do Seraing United and Charleroi tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Seraing United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Seraing United 0-1 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.17 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Seraing United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 36%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 51%, Charleroi 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.