OH Leuven 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OH Leuven face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 1). This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
OH Leuven's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — OH Leuven are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for OH Leuven, 0 for Charleroi and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended OH Leuven 1–0 Charleroi — a OH Leuven win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 48% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 39% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.41 xG and Charleroi 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.902 / defence 0.810 | Charleroi attack 1.088 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.24 | Draw 3.18 | Charleroi 4.18. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 30% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 1 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG OH Leuven 1.41 / Charleroi 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.902 / def 0.810 | Charleroi attack 1.088 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Charleroi xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.90x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.09x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.18
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Charleroi xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.98 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 22D 25L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.24 PPG from 66 outings (22W 16D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.24 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 15W 10D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — OH Leuven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 19W 22D 25L in their last 66 games (1.20 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.67 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OH Leuven and Charleroi, the earliest from February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 48%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (OH Leuven) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Charleroi in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OH Leuven and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of OH Leuven's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 64% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 1, as OH Leuven and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.41 xG and Charleroi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Charleroi attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 39%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.