OH Leuven 0-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion plays host to OH Leuven versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
OH Leuven's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, OH Leuven have posted 6W 1D 3L at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Anderlecht's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: OH Leuven 0W, Anderlecht 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 71% and Anderlecht 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 64% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.33 xG and Anderlecht 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 1.228 / defence 1.210 | Anderlecht attack 1.189 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.366. Data: 28 OH Leuven games / 28 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 26% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 52%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Anderlecht 1.92. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 60% | Anderlecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 26% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG OH Leuven 1.33 / Anderlecht 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 1.228 / def 1.210 | Anderlecht attack 1.189 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Anderlecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Anderlecht kick off?
OH Leuven vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is OH Leuven vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Anderlecht part of?
OH Leuven vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 26% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both OH Leuven and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Anderlecht?
Record (1 meetings): OH Leuven 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and Anderlecht in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (1.23) and Anderlecht's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.19x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
26%
3.85
22%
4.57
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
3.30
1.97
Anderlecht xG
3.85
26%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
14%
7.14
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
4%
27.52
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.97 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 10W 9D 9L from 28 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 5L across 28 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 7W 4D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Anderlecht in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 14W 9D 5L in their last 28 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.71 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 5-1 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OH Leuven
7
Draws
3
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 0, Anderlecht have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 71%, Anderlecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for OH Leuven and 57% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of OH Leuven's games and 50% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of OH Leuven's matches and 57% of Anderlecht's.
Do OH Leuven and Anderlecht tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven and Anderlecht finished level at 0-0 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.33 xG and Anderlecht 1.97 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.23 / defence 1.21 against Anderlecht attack 1.19 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 26% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 52%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 64%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.