KVC Westerlo 4-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KVC Westerlo at 82%, yet other data sources diverge — this KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as KVC Westerlo welcome SK Beveren to Het Kuipje. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, KVC Westerlo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo at Het Kuipje this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (KVC Westerlo) versus 1.50 (SK Beveren). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for KVC Westerlo, 1 for SK Beveren and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with KVC Westerlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
KVC Westerlo trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SK Beveren trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KVC Westerlo 42% versus SK Beveren 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 48% | SK Beveren 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 3.23 xG and SK Beveren 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 1.434 / defence 1.230 | SK Beveren attack 0.564 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.302. KVC Westerlo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — their λ of 3.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing KVC Westerlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 KVC Westerlo games / 8 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 82% | Draw 11% | SK Beveren 7%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 1.22 | Draw 9.09 | SK Beveren 14.29. The model has a clear lean to KVC Westerlo (82%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KVC Westerlo at 82% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KVC Westerlo 90% | SK Beveren 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 82% | Draw 11% | SK Beveren 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 57% | xG KVC Westerlo 3.23 / SK Beveren 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 1.434 / def 1.230 | SK Beveren attack 0.564 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.23
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SK Beveren xG
57%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren?
KVC Westerlo 4 - 4 SK Beveren.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren part of?
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 82% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren?
Record (4 meetings): KVC Westerlo 2W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren in?
KVC Westerlo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KVC Westerlo's attack rating (1.43) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 3.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KVC Westerlo's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
82%
1.22
11%
9.09
7%
14.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.23
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
4.13
0.90
SK Beveren xG
1.22
82%
Home win
9.09
11%
Draw
14.47
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
4%
25.33
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 3.23 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 0.90 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KVC Westerlo come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 10D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 2.42 PPG from 40 outings (31W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of KVC Westerlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
KVC Westerlo's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 2.10 points per game from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.05 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: KVC Westerlo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; SK Beveren in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 31W 4D 5L in their last 40 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.30 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.10 PPG.
Have KVC Westerlo or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KVC Westerlo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KVC Westerlo's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
KVC Westerlo
2
Draws
1
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren?
From 5 meetings on record, KVC Westerlo have won 2, SK Beveren have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when KVC Westerlo 4-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren?
KVC Westerlo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KVC Westerlo 60%, SK Beveren 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for KVC Westerlo and 75% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KVC Westerlo play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of KVC Westerlo's games and 60% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of KVC Westerlo's matches and 75% of SK Beveren's.
Do KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren tend to score early?
KVC Westerlo have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 9, as KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren drew 4-4 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 3.23 xG and SK Beveren 0.90 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. SK Beveren outscored their 0.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.43 / defence 1.23 against SK Beveren attack 0.56 / defence 1.43, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 82% | Draw 11% | SK Beveren 7%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 82%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 48%, SK Beveren 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.