KV Mechelen 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KV Mechelen at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as KV Mechelen welcome St. Truiden to AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KV Mechelen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KV Mechelen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KV Mechelen's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne this term (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
KV Mechelen are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
KV Mechelen trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
St. Truiden trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KV Mechelen 62% and St. Truiden 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KV Mechelen 62% | St. Truiden 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KV Mechelen 1.97 xG and St. Truiden 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KV Mechelen attack 1.246 / defence 1.125 | St. Truiden attack 0.753 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.498. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing KV Mechelen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 KV Mechelen games / 13 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KV Mechelen 54% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 24%. Fair-value odds: KV Mechelen 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | St. Truiden 4.17. KV Mechelen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KV Mechelen at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KV Mechelen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KV Mechelen 83% | St. Truiden 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KV Mechelen 54% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG KV Mechelen 1.97 / St. Truiden 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: KV Mechelen attack 1.246 / def 1.125 | St. Truiden attack 0.753 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: KV Mechelen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
KV Mechelen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
St. Truiden xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden kick off?
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne.
What was the final score in KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
KV Mechelen 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne.
What competition is KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden part of?
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives KV Mechelen a 54% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KV Mechelen the favourite.
Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KV Mechelen and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KV Mechelen and St. Truiden in?
KV Mechelen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KV Mechelen's attack rating (1.25) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus KV Mechelen's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KV Mechelen Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.58
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
KV Mechelen xG
Total xG
3.24
1.27
St. Truiden xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
3%
29.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are KV Mechelen and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for KV Mechelen and 1.27 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KV Mechelen come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 2D 4L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for KV Mechelen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KV Mechelen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
KV Mechelen's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.15 PPG overall record — St. Truiden travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KV Mechelen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KV Mechelen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KV Mechelen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KV Mechelen
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KV Mechelen and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
KV Mechelen have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KV Mechelen at home or St. Truiden away?
KV Mechelen's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KV Mechelen at home: 2.17 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when St. Truiden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KV Mechelen's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
KV Mechelen
1
Draws
9
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, KV Mechelen have won 0, St. Truiden have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KV Mechelen and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when St. Truiden 3-0 KV Mechelen.
Who has won more matches between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — KV Mechelen at 83%, St. Truiden at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for KV Mechelen and 50% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KV Mechelen home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KV Mechelen play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of KV Mechelen's games and 50% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of KV Mechelen's matches and 50% of St. Truiden's.
Do KV Mechelen and St. Truiden tend to score early?
KV Mechelen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat KV Mechelen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 0-1 at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 1.97 xG and St. Truiden 1.27 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KV Mechelen fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 1.25 / defence 1.12 against St. Truiden attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 54% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 24%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 62%, St. Truiden 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KV Mechelen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KV Mechelen arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.