Gent 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Anderlecht at GHELAMCO-arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 6W 2D 2L at GHELAMCO-arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Anderlecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 2.10 PPG versus Anderlecht's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 45% versus Anderlecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 45% | Anderlecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.17 xG and Anderlecht 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.166 / defence 1.040 | Anderlecht attack 1.071 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.315. Data: 31 Gent games / 31 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 30% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 44%. Fair-value odds: Gent 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Anderlecht 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Gent 50% | Anderlecht 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 30% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gent 1.17 / Anderlecht 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.166 / def 1.040 | Anderlecht attack 1.071 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Anderlecht xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Anderlecht kick off?
Gent vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Gent 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Gent vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Anderlecht part of?
Gent vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 30% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gent and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in?
Gent (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
30%
3.33
26%
3.83
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Gent xG
Total xG
2.63
1.46
Anderlecht xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gent and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gent and 1.46 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Gent have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 16W 7D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 16W 10D 5L from 31 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.77 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 7W 5D 3L from 15 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.10 scored and 1.06 conceded. Anderlecht's attacking output running into Gent's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 16W 7D 8L in their last 31 games (1.77 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 16W 10D 5L in their last 31 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Anderlecht away?
Gent's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Gent or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gent
2
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 2, Anderlecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gent 1-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 60%, Anderlecht 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gent) and 53% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 33%; Anderlecht in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Gent's recent matches and 47% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Gent's matches and 53% of Anderlecht's.
Do Gent and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Anderlecht 1-0 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.17 xG and Anderlecht 1.46 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against Anderlecht attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 30% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 44%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 45%, Anderlecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.77 PPG, Anderlecht 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.