Genk 0-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Standard Liege travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genk stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Genk have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Genk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liege have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Standard Liege's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Genk are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Genk have won 1, Standard Liege 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Genk 1–0 Standard Liege — a Genk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genk trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 50% versus Standard Liege 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 48% | Standard Liege 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.54 xG and Standard Liege 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.057 / defence 1.018 | Standard Liege attack 0.985 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 0.976. Data: built from Genk's last 30 games and Standard Liege's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 22%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.06 | Draw 3.46 | Standard Liege 4.45. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches — though recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and Standard Liege's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 30% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 90% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Genk 30 games, Standard Liege 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Genk 1.54 / Standard Liege 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.057 / def 1.018 | Standard Liege attack 0.985 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.356 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Genk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Standard Liege xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Genk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Genk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Genk 0 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Genk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Standard Liege part of?
Genk vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 49% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genk and Standard Liege will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genk's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Standard Liege's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 30 games and Standard Liege's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.46
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Genk xG
Total xG
2.52
0.98
Standard Liege xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Genk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Genk and 0.98 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genk's recent record stands at 15W 12D 13L from 40 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 17L across 40 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genk have managed 9W 7D 4L from their last 20 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 2W 7D 11L across their last 20 away games, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.12 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Pre-Season
Standard Liege
Pre-Season
Genk (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Pre-Season
Standard Liege
Pre-Season
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 8W 15D 17L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Standard Liege away?
Genk's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.70 PPG; Standard Liege away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Genk or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won Genk 0-3 Standard Liege.
Genk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
3
Draws
4
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Genk 2-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 45%, Standard Liege 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Genk and 70% for Standard Liege. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Standard Liege matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Genk's games and 75% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genk and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Genk's matches and 70% of Standard Liege's.
Do Genk and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Genk's recent matches and 85% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Genk and Standard Liege drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.54 xG and Standard Liege 0.98 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Standard Liege landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Standard Liege attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 49% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 22%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 48%, Standard Liege 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Standard Liege's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.