Genk 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face Genk in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 9). The match kicks off on Monday 20 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Genk have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Antwerp's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Genk. A 0.70 PPG lead over Antwerp (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 62% versus Antwerp 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 63% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.34 xG and Antwerp 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.033 / defence 0.965 | Antwerp attack 1.093 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Data: built from Genk's last 64 games and Antwerp's last 64.
Result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 34%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.56 | Draw 3.78 | Antwerp 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Genk 40% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Genk 1.34 / Antwerp 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.033 / def 0.965 | Antwerp attack 1.093 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Genk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Antwerp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Genk vs Antwerp kick off?
Genk vs Antwerp kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Monday 20 May 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Genk 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Genk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Antwerp part of?
Genk vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 39% chance of winning, Antwerp a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genk and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.03) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.09x) against Genk's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 64 games and Antwerp's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.78
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Genk xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Antwerp xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Genk and 1.24 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 40W 20D 18L from 78 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 40W 18D 20L across 78 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Genk against 1.77 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 23W 10D 6L from their last 39 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 16W 10D 13L across their last 39 away games, a 1.49 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.64 scored and 0.99 conceded. Genk's scoring rate against Antwerp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
Genk (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 40W 20D 18L in their last 78 games (1.79 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 40W 18D 20L in their last 78 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Antwerp away?
Genk's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.03 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Genk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Antwerp in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 3-0 Genk on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Antwerp have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Antwerp?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 59%, Antwerp 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Genk) and 44% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 41%; Antwerp in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Genk's recent matches and 36% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Genk's matches and 44% of Antwerp's.
Do Genk and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Genk's recent matches and 72% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Antwerp 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.34 xG and Antwerp 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Antwerp attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 39% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 34%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 63%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.79 PPG, Antwerp 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.