Club Brugge KV 3-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Jan Breydelstadion to face Club Brugge KV in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Club Brugge KV (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Breydelstadion, Club Brugge KV have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Breydelstadion.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Club Brugge KV. A 0.80 PPG lead over St. Truiden (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Club Brugge KV half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge KV 52% versus St. Truiden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge KV 56% | St. Truiden 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge KV 1.07 xG and St. Truiden 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge KV attack 1.109 / defence 0.816 | St. Truiden attack 0.744 / defence 0.629. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.481. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.629 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Club Brugge KV games / 46 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 39% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 30%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge KV 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | St. Truiden 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Club Brugge KV 40% | St. Truiden 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 39% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Club Brugge KV 1.07 / St. Truiden 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge KV attack 1.109 / def 0.816 | St. Truiden attack 0.744 / def 0.629 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Club Brugge KV xG
Expected Goals
0.90
St. Truiden xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden kick off?
Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Club Brugge KV 3 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden part of?
Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge KV a 39% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden in?
Club Brugge KV (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Club Brugge KV's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.74x) against Club Brugge KV's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.23
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Club Brugge KV xG
Total xG
1.97
0.90
St. Truiden xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 0.90 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Club Brugge KV have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 30W 10D 6L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden's form line: 19W 10D 17L from 46 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Club Brugge KV are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Club Brugge KV have posted 2.22 PPG from 23 outings (15W 6D 2L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Club Brugge KV are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge KV
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Club Brugge KV have gone 30W 10D 6L in their last 46 games (2.17 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge KV at home or St. Truiden away?
Club Brugge KV's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge KV at home: 2.22 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Club Brugge KV or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Club Brugge KV have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Club Brugge KV
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Club Brugge KV have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 2-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge KV 48%, St. Truiden 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Club Brugge KV) and 26% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; St. Truiden in 52%; St. Truiden in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge KV home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Club Brugge KV play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Club Brugge KV's recent matches and 30% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Club Brugge KV's recent games and 26% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Club Brugge KV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Club Brugge KV run riot with a 3-0 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat St. Truiden 3-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.07 xG and St. Truiden 0.90 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Club Brugge KV beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against St. Truiden attack 0.74 / defence 0.63, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 39% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 30%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 56%, St. Truiden 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.