Charleroi 1-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Charleroi are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Standard Liege trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 57% versus Standard Liege 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 57% | Standard Liege 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.36 xG and Standard Liege 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.942 / defence 0.955 | Standard Liege attack 0.935 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.269. Data: 35 Charleroi games / 35 Standard Liege games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 42% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 31%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Standard Liege 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 40% | Standard Liege 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 42% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.36 / Standard Liege 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.942 / def 0.955 | Standard Liege attack 0.935 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Standard Liege xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 42% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.94) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.73
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Standard Liege xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.13 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 14W 7D 14L from 35 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 14L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.40 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.37 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.41 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 59%, Standard Liege 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Charleroi) and 47% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Charleroi's recent matches and 47% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Charleroi's recent games and 47% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Standard Liege share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 3, as Charleroi and Standard Liege drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.36 xG and Standard Liege 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Standard Liege attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 42% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 31%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 57%, Standard Liege 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, Standard Liege 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.