Charleroi 0-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Jupiler Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 3.00 PPG versus St. Truiden's 3.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.20 xG and St. Truiden 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.976 / defence 1.150 | St. Truiden attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.817. Data: 1 Charleroi games / 1 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 22% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 48%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.08. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 22% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Charleroi 1.20 / St. Truiden 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.976 / def 1.150 | St. Truiden attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.817 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.78
St. Truiden xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs St. Truiden kick off?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 0 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Charleroi vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs St. Truiden part of?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 22% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charleroi and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in?
Charleroi (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
22%
4.46
30%
3.35
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.97
1.78
St. Truiden xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
4%
26.34
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.78 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 3.00 PPG, St. Truiden on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Charleroi's scoring rate against St. Truiden's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 100%.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Charleroi or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Charleroi's recent matches and 100% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Charleroi's matches and 100% of St. Truiden's.
Do Charleroi and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and St. Truiden finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.20 xG and St. Truiden 1.78 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. St. Truiden landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against St. Truiden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 22% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 48%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 100%, St. Truiden 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 3.00 PPG, St. Truiden 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.