Charleroi 1-1 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Club Brugge KV travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Club Brugge KV — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Club Brugge KV's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.90 PPG, Club Brugge KV 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Club Brugge KV, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Charleroi.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–4 with Club Brugge KV winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Club Brugge KV have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Club Brugge KV in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Club Brugge KV 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 46% | Club Brugge KV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.30 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.921 / defence 0.734 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.308 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.170. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Charleroi's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 38 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 31%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Club Brugge KV 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 20% | Club Brugge KV 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Charleroi 1.30 / Club Brugge KV 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.921 / def 0.734 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.308 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Club Brugge KV xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charleroi and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 1 | Club Brugge KV 5W.
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in?
Charleroi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.92) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.29
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.42
1.12
Club Brugge KV xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.12 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 10D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.77 PPG from 44 outings (22W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charleroi's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.89 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Charleroi's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.73 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Club Brugge KV have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
2
Draws
8
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Club Brugge KV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charleroi) and 64% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charleroi's recent games and 64% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Club Brugge KV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 9, as Charleroi and Club Brugge KV drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.30 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.12 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.73 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 31%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Club Brugge KV 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.