Antwerp 6-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antwerp face Standard Liege.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Antwerp welcome Standard Liege to Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antwerp stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Antwerp have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Antwerp are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Standard Liege — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Standard Liege away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Antwerp) versus 1.60 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Antwerp, 0 for Standard Liege and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2023, ended Antwerp 4–1 Standard Liege — a Antwerp win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 40% versus Standard Liege 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 48% | Standard Liege 52%). Note also that Standard Liege surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Antwerp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.01 xG and Standard Liege 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.244 / defence 0.745 | Standard Liege attack 1.025 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.358. Antwerp have a tight defence (rating 0.745), which is pulling Standard Liege's projected output down. Data: built from Antwerp's last 47 games and Standard Liege's last 46.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 58% | Draw 25% | Standard Liege 17%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.73 | Draw 3.99 | Standard Liege 5.87. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Standard Liege's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 50% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 58% | Draw 25% | Standard Liege 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Antwerp 2.01 / Standard Liege 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.244 / def 0.745 | Standard Liege attack 1.025 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Standard Liege xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Standard Liege kick off?
Antwerp vs Standard Liege kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Antwerp 6 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Antwerp vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Standard Liege part of?
Antwerp vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 58% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Standard Liege will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.24) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 47 games and Standard Liege's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
58%
1.73
25%
3.99
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.04
1.04
Standard Liege xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
2%
43.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.04 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 29W 13D 10L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Standard Liege's form line: 19W 14D 19L from 52 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 2.38 PPG from their last 26 home games (19W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Antwerp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Standard Liege have gone 8W 7D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.38 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
Antwerp (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Antwerp vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 29W 13D 10L in their last 52 games (1.92 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Standard Liege away?
Antwerp's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.38 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Standard Liege have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won Antwerp 6-0 Standard Liege.
Antwerp's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Standard Liege 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 42%, Standard Liege 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 54% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Standard Liege in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Standard Liege matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Antwerp's recent matches and 62% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antwerp's recent games and 54% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Antwerp's recent matches and 65% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Standard Liege 6-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.01 xG and Standard Liege 1.04 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Standard Liege landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.24 / defence 0.74 against Standard Liege attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 58% | Draw 25% | Standard Liege 17%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 48%, Standard Liege 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Standard Liege's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.