Antwerp 3-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 42%, yet in-form Anderlecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antwerp vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Antwerp have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Antwerp have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Antwerp are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Anderlecht away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Anderlecht are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Antwerp's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) — Antwerp have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Anderlecht in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Anderlecht edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Antwerp 0–1 Anderlecht — a Anderlecht win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 40% versus Anderlecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Anderlecht 54%). Note also that Anderlecht surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Antwerp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.51 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.155 / defence 0.845 | Anderlecht attack 1.305 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Anderlecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.305, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Antwerp's last 64 games and Anderlecht's last 63.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 42% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 32%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.35 | Draw 3.99 | Anderlecht 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Anderlecht (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 60% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 42% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Antwerp 1.51 / Anderlecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.155 / def 0.845 | Anderlecht attack 1.305 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Anderlecht xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Anderlecht kick off?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Antwerp 3 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Antwerp vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Anderlecht part of?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 10) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 42% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antwerp and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.16) and Anderlecht's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.30x) against Antwerp's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 64 games and Anderlecht's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
42%
2.35
25%
3.99
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.81
1.29
Anderlecht xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.29 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp come into this having played 72 games, going 33W 18D 21L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (35W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Antwerp against 1.71 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antwerp's home form reads 20W 8D 7L across their last 35 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.51 points per game from their last 35 away games (14W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.64 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
Antwerp (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Antwerp vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 33W 18D 21L in their last 72 games (1.62 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 35W 18D 19L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Anderlecht away?
Antwerp's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.94 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 21 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
4
Draws
5
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 1, Anderlecht have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 December 2025: Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 46%, Anderlecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 51% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Anderlecht in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Anderlecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Antwerp's recent matches and 60% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antwerp's recent games and 51% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Antwerp's recent matches and 71% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Anderlecht 3-1 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.51 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Anderlecht attack 1.30 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 42% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 32%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.62 PPG, Anderlecht 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.