Anderlecht 4-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.60 for Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Anderlecht, 0 for Charleroi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 56% versus Charleroi 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 53% | Charleroi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.98 xG and Charleroi 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.313 / defence 1.018 | Charleroi attack 1.027 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.349. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Anderlecht games / 32 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 51% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 27%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Charleroi 3.70. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 60% | Charleroi 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 51% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Anderlecht 1.98 / Charleroi 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.313 / def 1.018 | Charleroi attack 1.027 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Charleroi xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Charleroi kick off?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Anderlecht 4 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Anderlecht vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Charleroi part of?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 51% chance of winning, Charleroi a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Anderlecht and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.31x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.03x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.59
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.39
1.41
Charleroi xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
4%
26.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.41 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 16W 10D 6L from 32 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 9L across 32 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.59 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 9W 5D 2L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 4D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.62 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 16W 10D 6L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Charleroi away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Charleroi in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 69%, Charleroi 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Anderlecht and 81% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Anderlecht's games and 56% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Anderlecht's matches and 81% of Charleroi's.
Do Anderlecht and Charleroi tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 4-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.98 xG and Charleroi 1.41 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charleroi landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.02 against Charleroi attack 1.03 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 51% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 27%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 53%, Charleroi 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.81 PPG, Charleroi 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.