Zulte Waregem 3-1 Liège – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zulte Waregem face Liège.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Liège meet at Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zulte Waregem's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Liège have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liège's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Zulte Waregem, 0 for Liège and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Zulte Waregem 2–0 Liège — a Zulte Waregem win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Liège — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 53% versus Liège 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 47% | Liège 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.38 xG and Liège 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.770 / defence 0.869 | Liège attack 0.959 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.478. Zulte Waregem's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Liège's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zulte Waregem's projected output up. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 34 games and Liège's last 34.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.50 | Draw 3.69 | Liège 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 40% (last 10 home games) | Liège 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Liège | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.38 / Liège 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.770 / def 0.869 | Liège attack 0.959 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Liège xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Liège FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Liège kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Liège kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Zulte Waregem 3 - 1 Liège.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Liège being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Liège part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Liège is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 40% chance of winning, Liège a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Liège will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs Liège have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.77) and Liège's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liège's attack (0.96x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 34 games and Liège's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.69
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.61
1.23
Liège xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Liège Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.23 for Liège, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 8D 10L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Liège sit at 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (15W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.50 for Liège. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 5W 4D 7L across their last 16 home games, a 1.19 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.65 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Liège have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 16 away games (6W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Liège are on 1.56 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Liège
Early Season
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Liège (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Liège
Early Season
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Liège Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Liège in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 8D 10L in their last 34 games (1.65 PPG), while Liège have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Liège away?
Liège's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.19 PPG; Liège away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Zulte Waregem and Liège, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Liège — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
0
Liège
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Liège H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Liège?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 3, Liège have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Liège last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Liège 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Liège?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 44%, Liège 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Zulte Waregem) and 69% (Liège).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Liège away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Liège Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Liège matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 62% of Liège's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zulte Waregem and Liège matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 69% of Liège's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Liège matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 75% of Liège's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Liège.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Liège 3-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.38 xG and Liège 1.23 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.77 / defence 0.87 against Liège attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 47%, Liège 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Liège's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.65 PPG, Liège 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.