SK Beveren 1-3 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees K. Lierse S.K. travel to Freethielstadion to take on SK Beveren. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.78 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.44 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 2W 0D 2L at Freethielstadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.78 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.33 (K. Lierse S.K.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 56% and K. Lierse S.K. 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 67% | K. Lierse S.K. 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.81 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.071 / defence 1.364 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.832 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.415. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 SK Beveren games / 9 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 40% | Draw 28% | K. Lierse S.K. 32%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 40% | Draw 28% | K. Lierse S.K. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG SK Beveren 1.81 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.071 / def 1.364 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.832 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.61
K. Lierse S.K. xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren 1 - 3 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 40% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.55
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.42
1.61
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.61 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 5W 1D 3L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against K. Lierse S.K..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of K. Lierse S.K.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.89 scored and 1.67 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.50 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
SK Beveren
1
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 9, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SK Beveren at 50%, K. Lierse S.K. at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SK Beveren and 75% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SK Beveren's games and 100% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SK Beveren's matches and 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat SK Beveren 1-3 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.81 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.61 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 0.8 short of their projected output. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.83 / defence 1.46, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 40% | Draw 28% | K. Lierse S.K. 32%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 67%, K. Lierse S.K. 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with K. Lierse S.K. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.