SK Beveren 3-2 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SK Beveren welcome Dender to Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
SK Beveren at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SK Beveren are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dender stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Dender have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.70 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SK Beveren, 0 for Dender and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended SK Beveren 5–2 Dender — a SK Beveren win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dender trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 54% versus Dender 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 68% | Dender 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.10 xG and Dender 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.114 / defence 1.060 | Dender attack 0.969 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.392. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 34 games and Dender's last 34.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 29% | Draw 26% | Dender 45%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.46 | Draw 3.79 | Dender 2.24. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 29% | Draw 26% | Dender 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SK Beveren 1.10 / Dender 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.114 / def 1.060 | Dender attack 0.969 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Dender (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Dender xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Dender FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Dender kick off?
SK Beveren vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Dender?
SK Beveren 3 - 2 Dender.
Where is SK Beveren vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Dender part of?
SK Beveren vs Dender is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 29% chance of winning, Dender a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SK Beveren and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.11) and Dender's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 34 games and Dender's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
29%
3.46
26%
3.79
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.53
1.43
Dender xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.43 for Dender, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 23W 13D 8L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Dender's form line: 16W 11D 17L from 44 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.23 PPG from their last 22 home games (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, Dender have gone 8W 8D 6L from their last 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Dender
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Dender in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 23W 13D 8L in their last 44 games (1.86 PPG), while Dender have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Dender away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.23 PPG; Dender away: 1.45 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dender in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won Dender 0-3 SK Beveren.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Dender?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 3, Dender have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Dender 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Dender?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 59%, Dender 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (SK Beveren) and 27% (Dender).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dender in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SK Beveren's games and 59% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SK Beveren and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of SK Beveren's recent games and 27% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 64% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Dender 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Dender 3-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.10 xG and Dender 1.43 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Dender attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 29% | Draw 26% | Dender 45%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 68%, Dender 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dender's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.