Patro Eisden 2-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees KRC Genk II travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Patro Eisden) versus 1.40 (KRC Genk II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for KRC Genk II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Patro Eisden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
KRC Genk II trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 42% and KRC Genk II 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 54% | KRC Genk II 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.74 xG and KRC Genk II 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.094 / defence 0.852 | KRC Genk II attack 0.957 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.437. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Patro Eisden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Patro Eisden games / 46 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 25%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | KRC Genk II 4.00. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 40% | KRC Genk II 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Patro Eisden 1.74 / KRC Genk II 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.094 / def 0.852 | KRC Genk II attack 0.957 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.17
KRC Genk II xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden 2 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II part of?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 51% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Record (1 meetings): Patro Eisden 1W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.18
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.91
1.17
KRC Genk II xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.17 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 11W 7D 6L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II's form line: 8W 5D 11L from 24 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 4W 3D 5L from 12 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.62 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 79%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or KRC Genk II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.92 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Patro Eisden at 50%, KRC Genk II at 92%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Patro Eisden and 75% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Patro Eisden's games and 92% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Patro Eisden's matches and 75% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 25, as Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.74 xG and KRC Genk II 1.17 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against KRC Genk II attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 24/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 51% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 25%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, KRC Genk II 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.