Patro Eisden 0-4 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Beerschot VA travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Patrostadion, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Beerschot VA's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Patro Eisden's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Patro Eisden, 1 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Patro Eisden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Beerschot VA trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 61% versus Beerschot VA 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 52% | Beerschot VA 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.07 xG and Beerschot VA 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.969 / defence 1.075 | Beerschot VA attack 0.891 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.374. Data: 58 Patro Eisden games / 29 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 30% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 42%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Beerschot VA 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Patro Eisden 50% | Beerschot VA 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 30% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Patro Eisden 1.07 / Beerschot VA 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.969 / def 1.075 | Beerschot VA attack 0.891 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Beerschot VA xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Patro Eisden 0 - 4 Beerschot VA.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA part of?
Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 30% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Patro Eisden 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 0.97x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.64
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
Beerschot VA xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.32 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden come into this having played 64 games, going 30W 20D 14L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (22W 14D 28L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Patro Eisden's home form reads 16W 9D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (9W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.23 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Current Season
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 30W 20D 14L in their last 64 games (1.72 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Beerschot VA away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.78 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2026, when Beerschot VA won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 2, Beerschot VA have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beerschot VA 3-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 66%, Beerschot VA 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Patro Eisden) and 56% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Patro Eisden's games and 50% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Patro Eisden's matches and 56% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beerschot VA run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Patro Eisden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Patro Eisden 0-4 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.07 xG and Beerschot VA 1.32 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA outscored their 1.32 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Beerschot VA attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 30% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 42%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 52%, Beerschot VA 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Beerschot VA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.