Lommel United 0-0 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Seraing United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lommel United welcome Seraing United to Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Seraing United stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Seraing United away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lommel United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Lommel United, 0 for Seraing United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2023, ended Lommel United 2–2 Seraing United — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Seraing United in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 52% versus Seraing United 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 61% | Seraing United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.99 xG and Seraing United 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.289 / defence 0.822 | Seraing United attack 0.773 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.357. Lommel United carry an above-average attack rating of 1.289 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Seraing United's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Lommel United's last 49 games and Seraing United's last 27.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 64% | Draw 21% | Seraing United 15%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.57 | Draw 4.80 | Seraing United 6.46. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lommel United 50% (last 10 home games) | Seraing United 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Seraing United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 64% | Draw 21% | Seraing United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lommel United 1.99 / Seraing United 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.289 / def 0.822 | Seraing United attack 0.773 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Seraing United xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs Seraing United FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs Seraing United kick off?
Lommel United vs Seraing United kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Seraing United?
Lommel United 0 - 0 Seraing United.
Where is Lommel United vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Seraing United part of?
Lommel United vs Seraing United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 64% chance of winning, Seraing United a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lommel United and Seraing United will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lommel United vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lommel United's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Seraing United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Seraing United's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 49 games and Seraing United's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.80
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.85
0.86
Seraing United xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
47.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs Seraing United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.86 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Seraing United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 30W 9D 20L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Seraing United's form line: 10W 14D 35L from 59 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seraing United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 3D 10L).
On the road, Seraing United have gone 6W 6D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 0.98 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Seraing United in 63%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
Lommel United (Home) vs Seraing United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Lommel United vs Seraing United Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and Seraing United in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 30W 9D 20L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 10W 14D 35L in their last 59 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Seraing United away?
Lommel United's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.76 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Seraing United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Seraing United in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lommel United's record when hosting Seraing United specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lommel United
3
Draws
1
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs Seraing United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Seraing United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 2, Seraing United have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Seraing United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Lommel United 0-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Seraing United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 48%, Seraing United 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lommel United) and 66% (Seraing United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs Seraing United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and Seraing United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Lommel United's games and 69% of Seraing United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lommel United and Seraing United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lommel United's matches and 66% of Seraing United's.
Do Lommel United and Seraing United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Lommel United's recent matches and 76% of Seraing United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lommel United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Lommel United and Seraing United drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.99 xG and Seraing United 0.86 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lommel United fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Seraing United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Seraing United attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 64% | Draw 21% | Seraing United 15%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, Seraing United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Seraing United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.