K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 41%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. welcome SK Beveren to AsterX Group-f Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
K. Lierse S.K. at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Beveren stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
SK Beveren have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 0 for K. Lierse S.K..
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2024, ended K. Lierse S.K. 0–1 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SK Beveren have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 62% versus SK Beveren 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 66% | SK Beveren 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.018 / defence 0.865 | SK Beveren attack 1.010 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.329. Data: built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 56 games and SK Beveren's last 55.
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 41% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 32%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.42 | Draw 3.74 | SK Beveren 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is K. Lierse S.K. at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: AsterX Group-f Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 41% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.36 / SK Beveren 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.018 / def 0.865 | SK Beveren attack 1.010 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 41% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.02x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 56 games and SK Beveren's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.74
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
SK Beveren xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.16 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 12D 24L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (24W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.25 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 12W 6D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K. (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or SK Beveren away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.50 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.43 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: SK Beveren have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won SK Beveren 5-0 K. Lierse S.K..
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
9
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, SK Beveren have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 68%, SK Beveren 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for K. Lierse S.K. and 50% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 39%; SK Beveren in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 39% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 50% of SK Beveren's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 71% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against SK Beveren attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 41% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 32%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 66%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.25 PPG, SK Beveren 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.