Francs Borains 3-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SK Beveren at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Francs Borains welcome SK Beveren to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Francs Borains are significantly better at Stade Robert Urbain than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 0, SK Beveren 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
SK Beveren trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 35% versus SK Beveren 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 47% | SK Beveren 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.73 xG and SK Beveren 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.788 / defence 1.126 | SK Beveren attack 1.157 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.518. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Beveren's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Francs Borains games / 40 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 13% | Draw 20% | SK Beveren 67%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | SK Beveren 1.49. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 38% | SK Beveren 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 13% | Draw 20% | SK Beveren 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 44% | xG Francs Borains 0.73 / SK Beveren 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.788 / def 1.126 | SK Beveren attack 1.157 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.98
SK Beveren xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs SK Beveren kick off?
Francs Borains vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Francs Borains 3 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren part of?
Francs Borains vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 13% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Francs Borains and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and SK Beveren in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
13%
7.79
20%
4.90
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.70
1.98
SK Beveren xG
7.79
13%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
2%
56.17
32%
3.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.98 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 5W 1D 11L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 8W 5D 4L from 17 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.65 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.25 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and SK Beveren runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when SK Beveren won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, SK Beveren have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 38%, SK Beveren 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Francs Borains) and 50% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SK Beveren in 62%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 38% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Francs Borains's recent games and 50% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Francs Borains run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat SK Beveren 3-0 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.73 xG and SK Beveren 1.98 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against SK Beveren attack 1.16 / defence 0.77, drawn from 17/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 13% | Draw 20% | SK Beveren 67%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 47%, SK Beveren 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.