Excelsior Virton 0-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior Virton at 51%, yet in-form K. Lierse S.K. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yvan Georges plays host to Excelsior Virton versus K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior Virton's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Yvan Georges this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, K. Lierse S.K. are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior Virton lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 56% and K. Lierse S.K. 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 2.28 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 1.033 / defence 1.145 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.970 / defence 1.611. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.531. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.611 — this is suppressing Excelsior Virton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Excelsior Virton games / 36 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 51% | Draw 20% | K. Lierse S.K. 29%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.45. Excelsior Virton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior Virton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form K. Lierse S.K. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior Virton 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 51% | Draw 20% | K. Lierse S.K. 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Excelsior Virton 2.28 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 1.033 / def 1.145 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.970 / def 1.611 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.70
K. Lierse S.K. xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 51% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (4 meetings): Excelsior Virton 1W | Draws 2 | K. Lierse S.K. 1W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 1.03x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.97x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
51%
1.96
20%
4.89
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
3.98
1.70
K. Lierse S.K. xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.79
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
3%
34.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.70 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Excelsior Virton have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 11D 19L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 14W 9D 13L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, K. Lierse S.K. are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior Virton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior Virton have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 6W 4D 8L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.58 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 6W 11D 19L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 0.94 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior Virton
4
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2022, when K. Lierse S.K. 2-2 Excelsior Virton.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 50%, K. Lierse S.K. 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Excelsior Virton) and 72% (K. Lierse S.K.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior Virton's games and 72% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Excelsior Virton's matches and 72% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Excelsior Virton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 9, as Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 2.28 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.70 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior Virton fell 2.3 short of their projected output. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.97 / defence 1.61, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 51% | Draw 20% | K. Lierse S.K. 29%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 50%, K. Lierse S.K. 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.