Deinze 3-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Lommel United at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Dakota Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deinze at 1.40 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Deinze register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 73% and Lommel United 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deinze 54% | Lommel United 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.40 xG and Lommel United 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 0.991 / defence 0.893 | Lommel United attack 0.675 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.676. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Deinze games / 11 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 42% | Draw 35% | Lommel United 23%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Lommel United 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 80% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 42% | Draw 35% | Lommel United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Deinze 1.40 / Lommel United 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 0.991 / def 0.893 | Lommel United attack 0.675 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.676 • Poisson stance: Deinze (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lommel United xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Lommel United kick off?
Deinze vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Deinze 3 - 3 Lommel United.
Where is Deinze vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Lommel United part of?
Deinze vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 42% chance of winning, Lommel United a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deinze and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in?
Deinze (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (0.99) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
42%
2.38
35%
2.89
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.41
1.01
Lommel United xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Deinze and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Deinze and 1.01 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 3W 6D 2L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 4W 1D 6L from 11 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 1.36 PPG, Lommel United on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Lommel United in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Lommel United away?
Deinze's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.60 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Deinze
3
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Lommel United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 80%, Lommel United at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Deinze and 60% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Deinze's games and 60% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Deinze's matches and 60% of Lommel United's.
Do Deinze and Lommel United tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze and Lommel United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze and Lommel United finished level at 3-3 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.40 xG and Lommel United 1.01 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Lommel United attack 0.68 / defence 1.28, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 42% | Draw 35% | Lommel United 23%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 54%, Lommel United 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.36 PPG, Lommel United 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.