Club Brugge II 1-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The NEST plays host to Club Brugge II versus Zulte Waregem in Challenger Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Club Brugge II's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Club Brugge II have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Zulte Waregem's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Zulte Waregem arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Club Brugge II edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Club Brugge II 1–0 Zulte Waregem — a Club Brugge II win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Club Brugge II — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 55% versus Zulte Waregem 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 64% | Zulte Waregem 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 1.00 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 0.864 / defence 1.089 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.171 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.466. Data: built from Club Brugge II's last 43 games and Zulte Waregem's last 21.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 20% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 58%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 5.01 | Draw 4.46 | Zulte Waregem 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Club Brugge II's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Club Brugge II 40% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: The NEST • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge II 20% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Club Brugge II 1.00 / Zulte Waregem 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge II attack 0.864 / def 1.089 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.171 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Club Brugge II xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Zulte Waregem xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at The NEST.
What was the final score in Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem?
Club Brugge II 1 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at The NEST.
What competition is Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge II a 20% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Club Brugge II's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.17x) against Club Brugge II's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from Club Brugge II's last 43 games and Zulte Waregem's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
20%
5.01
22%
4.46
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Club Brugge II xG
Total xG
2.87
1.87
Zulte Waregem xG
5.01
20%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
3%
32.49
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Club Brugge II and 1.87 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Club Brugge II come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 10D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.13 PPG from 53 outings (16W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Club Brugge II against 1.13 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Club Brugge II's home form reads 12W 6D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 26 away games (11W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Club Brugge II are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.58 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 64%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge II
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Club Brugge II (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Club Brugge II
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Club Brugge II have gone 21W 10D 22L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge II at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Club Brugge II's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge II at home: 1.62 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 20 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won Club Brugge II 0-3 Zulte Waregem on 20 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Club Brugge II have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Club Brugge II
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Club Brugge II have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 December 2024: Club Brugge II 0-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge II 54%, Zulte Waregem 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Club Brugge II and 62% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge II have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge II home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Club Brugge II's games and 62% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Club Brugge II's matches and 62% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Club Brugge II and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 81% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Club Brugge II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Club Brugge II 1-3 at The NEST, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.00 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.87 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 20% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 58%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 64%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge II's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Club Brugge II 1.38 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.