Beerschot VA 2-0 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II meet at Olympisch Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Beerschot VA (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beerschot VA have posted 4W 3D 3L at Olympisch Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Standard Liège II have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Beerschot VA's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Standard Liège II's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Standard Liège II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Beerschot VA 1W, Standard Liège II 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Standard Liège II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Beerschot VA half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Standard Liège II half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus Standard Liège II 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 58% | Standard Liège II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.93 xG and Standard Liège II 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 1.149 / defence 0.770 | Standard Liège II attack 0.869 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.457. Standard Liège II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Beerschot VA's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Beerschot VA games / 42 Standard Liège II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 60% | Draw 22% | Standard Liège II 19%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Standard Liège II 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | Standard Liège II 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 60% | Draw 22% | Standard Liège II 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Beerschot VA 1.93 / Standard Liège II 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 1.149 / def 0.770 | Standard Liège II attack 0.869 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Standard Liège II xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II?
Beerschot VA 2 - 0 Standard Liège II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II part of?
Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 60% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II?
Record (3 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 1 | Standard Liège II 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Standard Liège II (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Standard Liège II's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Standard Liège II's attack (0.87x) against Beerschot VA's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.60
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.91
0.97
Standard Liège II xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
37.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 0.97 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beerschot VA come into this having played 52 games, going 27W 7D 18L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Standard Liège II sit at 0.81 PPG from 52 outings (10W 12D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Beerschot VA's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Standard Liège II have taken 0.64 points per game from 25 outings (4W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 0.94 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 27W 7D 18L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 10W 12D 30L in their last 52 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Standard Liège II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.44 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
1
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 2, Standard Liège II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Beerschot VA 2-0 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 48%, Standard Liège II 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beerschot VA) and 60% (Standard Liège II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Standard Liège II in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Standard Liège II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 48% of Standard Liège II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Standard Liège II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 60% of Standard Liège II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Standard Liège II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Standard Liège II in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Standard Liège II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Standard Liège II 2-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.93 xG and Standard Liège II 0.97 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Standard Liège II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Standard Liège II attack 0.87 / defence 1.37, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 60% | Draw 22% | Standard Liège II 19%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 58%, Standard Liège II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.