WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 3D 1L this season (5 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for WSG Wattens, 1.20 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, TSV Hartberg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 80% and TSV Hartberg 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 60% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.964 / defence 1.268 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.047 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.406. Data: 10 WSG Wattens games / 10 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 45%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 2.22. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | TSV Hartberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG WSG Wattens 1.43 / TSV Hartberg 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.964 / def 1.268 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.047 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.87
TSV Hartberg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 2 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 27% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.05x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
27%
3.76
28%
3.52
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.30
1.87
TSV Hartberg xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
4%
24.30
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.87 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 5D 4L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.20 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.20 PPG overall record — TSV Hartberg travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.80 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.20 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for WSG Wattens, 80% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (WSG Wattens) and 40% (TSV Hartberg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of WSG Wattens's games and 80% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 40% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 11, as WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.87 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 45%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 60%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.80 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.