WSG Wattens 0-0 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as WSG Wattens welcome Admira Wacker to Tivoli Stadion Tirol. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 5D 3L at Tivoli Stadion Tirol — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Admira Wacker have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — WSG Wattens at 1.00 PPG versus Admira Wacker's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, WSG Wattens have won 1, Admira Wacker 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with WSG Wattens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Admira Wacker trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus Admira Wacker 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 61% | Admira Wacker 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.23 xG and Admira Wacker 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.968 / defence 1.281 | Admira Wacker attack 0.896 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.236. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 41%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Admira Wacker 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 70% | Admira Wacker 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG WSG Wattens 1.23 / Admira Wacker 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.968 / def 1.281 | Admira Wacker attack 0.896 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Admira Wacker xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
WSG Wattens 0 - 0 Admira Wacker.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker part of?
WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 33% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker?
Record (2 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 1 | Admira Wacker 0W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.97) and Admira Wacker's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.85
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.64
1.42
Admira Wacker xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.68
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.42 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 8D 10L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Admira Wacker's form line: 5W 8D 10L from 23 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.00 PPG, Admira Wacker on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Admira Wacker have gone 2W 6D 3L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.17 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Admira Wacker away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.09 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 73%, Admira Wacker at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (WSG Wattens) and 54% (Admira Wacker).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of WSG Wattens's games and 73% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 54% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at WSG Wattens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 2, as WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.23 xG and Admira Wacker 1.42 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Admira Wacker landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 1.28 against Admira Wacker attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 41%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 61%, Admira Wacker 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.