TSV Hartberg 0-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for TSV Hartberg, 1.10 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 58% versus WSG Wattens 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 42% | WSG Wattens 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG and WSG Wattens 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.832 / defence 1.214 | WSG Wattens attack 0.857 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | WSG Wattens 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | WSG Wattens 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.36 / WSG Wattens 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.832 / def 1.214 | WSG Wattens attack 0.857 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
WSG Wattens xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens part of?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 39% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.83) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.86x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.83
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.29
WSG Wattens xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.29 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 9D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (5W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.00 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 2W 5D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or WSG Wattens away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.92 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 67%, WSG Wattens 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (TSV Hartberg) and 75% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games; WSG Wattens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 42% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 75% of WSG Wattens's.
Do TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG and WSG Wattens 1.29 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against WSG Wattens attack 0.86 / defence 1.42, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 35%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 42%, WSG Wattens 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.