TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours TSV Hartberg (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as TSV Hartberg face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, TSV Hartberg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | Wolfsberger AC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 2.42 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.094 / defence 1.332 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.721 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 TSV Hartberg games / 31 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 22% | Wolfsberger AC 16%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Wolfsberger AC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Wolfsberger AC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 22% | Wolfsberger AC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG TSV Hartberg 2.42 / Wolfsberger AC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.094 / def 1.332 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.721 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 61% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 5W | Draws 2 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.09x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.46
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.68
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
9%
11.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
1%
69.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.25 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 13W 14D 14L from 41 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 19L across 41 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.29 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 6W 6D 9L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 5W 3D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.20 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.14 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for TSV Hartberg and 67% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.