TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.10 for Grazer AK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours TSV Hartberg, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Grazer AK — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 51% versus Grazer AK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Grazer AK 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.93 xG and Grazer AK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.799 / defence 1.231 | Grazer AK attack 0.662 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 TSV Hartberg games / 27 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 59% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 17%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Grazer AK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | Grazer AK 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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